Fourth round of NAFTA negotiations set for mid-October

The fourth of seven planned rounds of talks to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement is scheduled to start Oct. 11 in the United States.

Representatives from the three countries involved in the agreement — the United States, Mexico and Canada  — have also met in Canada and Mexico and in September jointly said they have made "significant progress."

"In particular, meaningful advancements were made in the areas of telecommunications, competition policy, digital trade, good regulatory practices, and customs and trade facilitation," the countries said in a trilateral statement after the third round of negotiations in September.

The countries also talked about small- and medium-sized enterprises and the inclusion of a chapter on them in a modernized agreement to help support their growth and development, the statement said.

Negotiators have also discussed energy trade, gender and indigenous peoples, according to the statement. The countries anticipated completing negotiations on the competition chapter of NAFTA before the fourth round of talks.

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer in July outlined objectives the United States seeks in NAFTA renegotiations, such as:

• reducing the U.S. trade deficit;

• improving market access in Canada and Mexico for U.S. manufacturing, agriculture, and services;

• adding a digital economy chapter; and,

• incorporating and strengthening labor and environment obligations that are in NAFTA side agreements.

The Trump administration would also work "to eliminate unfair subsidies, market-distorting practices by state owned enterprises, and burdensome restrictions on intellectual property," Lighthizer said.

The September trilateral statement said parties remained "committed to an accelerated timeline for negotiations." CNN reported in August that the seven rounds are expected to go through December but could go longer.

Trump has said he would "terminate" NAFTA if a "fair deal for all" isn't reached. Based on how negotiations are going so far, is withdrawal likely?

Generally speaking, the business community would be very much against withdrawal, said Raj Bhala, an international trade law expert, Brenneisen Distinguished Professor at University of Kansas Law School and senior adviser for law firm Dentons U.S. LLP.

If Trump withdrew from the deal, the United States and Canada would likely fall back on a previous free trade agreement in force before NAFTA, and U.S. businesses would lose duty-free access to Mexico, Bhala said.

Withdrawal from NAFTA would significantly impact U.S. farming and manufacturing states and would also disrupt global supply chains set up over the past 23 years since NAFTA went into effect, Bhala said.

PolitiFact will continue to track the NAFTA negotiation process.The fourth round of discussions is slated for Oct. 11-15 in Washington. Pending results, Trump's promise to renegotiate the agreement remains In the Works.