Another monthy drop, but still on the positive side

We're updating our item that monitors Gov. Scott Walker's progress toward meeting his top  2010 campaign promise -- that the state would create 250,000 private sector jobs by the end of his four-year term.

The state's jobs or lack of jobs -- and the accuracy of underlying jobs data -- was a central part of the June 5, 2012 recall election in which Walker defeated Democrat Tom Barrett, the mayor of Milwaukee.

When we started this promise on the Walk-O-Meter, we noted that the jobs numbers are a moving picture, one that comes into sharper -- and more accurate -- focus over time.

In late June 2012, federal officials released the most accurate count of state employment for 2011, Walker's first year in office. It is based on the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, which is compiled through reports from more than 90 percent of state employers.

(These are the numbers Walker was criticized for releasing weeks early, before final adjustments from the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics.)

The final number for 2011 showed the state added 19,551 private-sector jobs.

So we're using that census figure as a new baseline, and will continue to do so in future years as more full years are, in a sense, in the books.

Since the census figures come with a six-month lag time, to measure changes in 2012 we'll use monthly Current Employment Survey numbers provided by the state Department of Workforce Development.

Those figures are far less accurate than the census. The monthly reports are based on data collected from about 3 percent of state employers that is then extrapolated to the entire state. Thus, they have a high margin of error and are subject to revision, sometimes wide revision, in later months.

Although the monthly survey numbers are less accurate, they are routinely cited by the media and politicians when they tout (or downplay) the results.

With that understanding of the two sets of numbers, together they provide the best approximation of how Walker is doing on his promise. (If we relied exclusively on the census, we wouldn't get a figure for his final year until after the 2014 election.)

So far in 2012, the monthly numbers show a net increase of 2,400 jobs.

When considered with the census numbers, the state has created an estimated 21,951 jobs since Walker took office. That means the state will need to create 228,049 more jobs before the end of Walker's term in 2014 for him to achieve his goal. (Here is our graphic monitoring changes)

We continue to rate this promise In The Works.