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Final numbers for 2012 show a long way to go

By James B. Nelson July 5, 2013

We now have the numbers for the half-way point in our effort to measure Gov. Scott Walker's top campaign promise from 2010 -- that the state would create 250,000 private sector jobs by the end of his four-year term.


The federal Bureau of Labor Statistics on June 27, 2013 released data for job creation in 2012, the second full year of Walker's term. The report said that Wisconsin added a total of 32,282 private sector jobs last year.


That compares with 29,800 jobs in 2011, bringing the two-year total to 62,082 jobs.


At the halfway mark of his term, that meant Walker was only about one fourth of the way -- or 187,918 jobs -- from his goal.


The census report is based on what experts agree is the best and most accurate assessment of the state's employment, the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. It's compiled from more than 90 percent of state employers.


But the census figures come with a six-month time lag.


To provide our monthly update on the jobs tally, we start with the annual data. Then we consider the less accurate but carefully watched monthly Current Employment Survey estimates. Those monthly figures are based on data collected from 3 percent of state employers that is then extrapolated to the entire state. Those numbers have a high margin of error and can be subject to considerable revisions in later months.


Here's an example of how the data gets refined. The monthly survey results said the state added 23,800 jobs in 2012.


That's 8,482 jobs fewer than the census report showed for the same time frame.


We'll continue our practice of using the census figure as our "baseline” and then build in the more timely monthly count. We do this because if we relied exclusively on the census, we would not get a final jobs count for Walker's term until six months after the 2014 election. We'll add the 2013 census results to our baseline when those figures become available at this time next year.

 

So let's tally up.


According to the monthly survey results, the state added a total of 5,100 jobs through May of 2013. It's been an up-and-down year so far, marked by two months (January and May) with more than 12,000 jobs added, and the month of April which saw a decline of 20,800.


Combining the 2013 data with the results from the previous two years yields our bottom line: the state has added an estimated 67,182 private sector jobs since Walker took office. That leaves 182,818 jobs left to go in the 19 months that remain, or an average of 9,622 jobs per month, for Walker to meet his goal.

This promise remains In the Works.